Coronavirus and Lockdown: What Crisis awaits Indian Politics

As we approach the end of the first 21 day nationwide total lock-down, wondering whether it will be extended, and if so in what shape or form. There is a question at the back of all our minds that needs to be articulated.

So, what is the likely impact of Corona virus crisis on India's politics?

To contain the corona virus, the Indian government has chosen to confine all of its 1.3 billion residents. The success of this lock down varies from city to city and state to state, some areas airily empty with few people venturing out. But for the millions living below the poverty line confinement isn’t an option. Poverty is pushing millions of desperate people to defy India’s lock-down order. This pandemic has dried up work and caused a mass exodus. But while the poor flee, they could potentially spread the virus throughout the country, making the fight against the COVID-19 even tougher to win.

While the number of COVID-19 deaths and infections in India has so far remained relatively low, despite the enormous billion-plus population. Authorities claim that they are ramping up testing, as the capital Delhi and financial hub Mumbai started emerging as hotspots.

This pandemic has increased the already existing levels of frustration and anger felt by India’s vulnerable and poor people for the system. The ‘system’ here implies not just the government but the ‘ruling establishment’.

After six years in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi faces the greatest test of his political career. If he steers a successful response to Covid-19, he will cement his standing as India’s most popular and powerful politician in a generation. But if India suffers a crisis, it could severely diminish PM’s stature and lead to widespread and unpredictable social and political upheaval. Up until now, the crisis has not affected the Prime Minister’s standing and many who have suffered will have appreciated his apology. Also, as in a situation of war, in a crisis like this there is an initial tendency to rally around the flag and government. Therefore, it is likely that the government will be benefited one way or the other.

However, things could change if the suffering increases both in terms of its economic cost and human cost. The economic damage, particularly the loss of jobs, hunger and deaths if increased sharply will definitely damage the BJP and the Prime Minister’s standing. In the end, the buck will stop with the Prime Minister. Just as he will take the credit if all goes well, similarly the blame will be pinned on him if the outcome is opposite.

The same outcome could be applicable in terms of the state governments. If the suffering increased, they too will be blamed. It’s not just the central government that will face the wrath of the people.

The central government was slow to react to the Corona virus crisis and was “still behind the curve”. Many leaders and people who are at the very top did not seriously respond till the 20^th of March.

Talking about the vulnerable and poor sections of this country, it is tough to articulate what tens or hundreds of millions of daily wage workers, landless agricultural labourers and unemployed unorganised sector workers felt about the BJP government and the Prime Minister. Although it is certain that they would be angry with the system. Anger against the PM and BJP could depend on how severe the suffering turns out. However, If the lock-down had been announced for seven days at a time, rather than twenty-one at one go, the poor and vulnerable would not have begun walking back to their villages hundreds of miles away.

Another fault lies in the government’s effective communication. The regular press conferences are mostly held by the bureaucrats. Instead it is the duty of those top ministers who are transparent and open. That would also give the country a higher level of confidence in the government’s handling of the crisis.

Speaking about the opposition parties, at this point of time they should not seek anything that is electorally beneficial. They also must not oppose and criticise for the sake of criticising. In fact, it is necessary that they support the government on “the right points”. Most importantly, they must go out to the grassroots and comfort and support people. Unfortunately, what is seen today is that the leaders are tweeting from the comfort of Delhi and Mumbai or state capitals but hardly going to the people to be with them.

To what extent this pandemic would damage the current government and what affect will it have in elections is something which is very difficult to say both because elections are four years away and this will also turn on the opposition’s ability to unite and find a face to take on the PM. Although, anything can happen. Who knew in 1986 that Rajiv Gandhi would lose three years later? Who could say in 1973 or 1975 that Indira Gandhi would lose in 1977?

Image Courtesy- Public Radio International (www.pri.org)